IsThereADealYet.comMon, Oct 19, 2026 · Day 234 · a CHOKEPOINT lens

IS THERE A DEAL YET?IT’S COMPLICATED.

Araghchi says Iran's seven-day Hormuz reopening proposal is "still on the table"; sequencing dispute with Washington unresolved Oct 18 · evt-2026-10-18-001

SAID
Oct 18: Araghchi says Iran's seven-day Hormuz reopening proposal is "still on the table"; sequencing dispute with Washington unresolved
IN FORCE
None observed holding. No formal termination on record.
Every agreement: declared vs. observed vs. disputed
  • Two-week ceasefire (Pakistan-mediated)
    Declared: superseded (the Islamabad Memorandum, Jun 17) · Observed: violated May 7 · Disputed
  • Indefinite ceasefire extension
    Declared: superseded (the Islamabad Memorandum, Jun 17) · Observed: violated May 25 · Disputed
  • Islamabad Memorandum
    Declared: claimed over by Trump (Jul 8); suspended by Iran (Jul 13); lapsed (60-day window, no extension, Aug 17); no formal termination on record · Observed: collapsed Jul 7–8 · Disputed
  • Doha stand-down (informal)
    Declared: claimed over by Trump (Jul 8); no formal termination on record · Observed: collapsed Jul 7–8 · Disputed
Basis for each classification (M13)
Two-week ceasefire (Pakistan-mediated):
Declared: superseded (the Islamabad Memorandum, Jun 17) · Observed: violated May 7 · Disputed
Two-week ceasefire (Pakistan-mediated) · declared basis:
The signed Islamabad Memorandum set a new 60-day ceasefire. The two-week ceasefire was never declared over by either side; supersession is dated to the signing (the Jun 14 deal announcement was not implemented by Iran until signing). Approximate by design.
Two-week ceasefire (Pakistan-mediated) · observed basis:
Iranian forces attacked three U.S. destroyers transiting Hormuz; U.S. forces struck launch sites near Bandar Abbas and Qeshm. Trump said the same day the ceasefire was "in effect".
Indefinite ceasefire extension:
Declared: superseded (the Islamabad Memorandum, Jun 17) · Observed: violated May 25 · Disputed
Indefinite ceasefire extension · declared basis:
Never declared over by either side. Supersession is dated to the Jun 17 signing of the Islamabad Memorandum (the deal was announced Jun 14 but Iran said it would not implement before signing); the true handover falls somewhere in Jun 12–17.
Indefinite ceasefire extension · observed basis:
CENTCOM struck Iranian mine-laying boats and missile launch sites near Bandar Abbas, calling it self-defense "while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire"; Iran called it a "grave violation of the ceasefire."
Islamabad Memorandum:
Declared: claimed over by Trump (Jul 8); suspended by Iran (Jul 13); lapsed (60-day window, no extension, Aug 17); no formal termination on record · Observed: collapsed Jul 7–8 · Disputed
Islamabad Memorandum · declared basis:
Sixty days after signing passed with no extension and no wider deal. Not declared by either party; Iran's Baqaei said the memorandum "contains no provision regarding a 60-day period." Recorded as lapsed under the reported terms, with the expiry itself disputed.
Islamabad Memorandum · observed basis:
After Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in Hormuz, the U.S. struck about 80 Iranian targets on Jul 7 and about 90 more on Jul 8; IRGC attacked U.S. sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. Sustained two-way strikes, not an isolated incident.
Doha stand-down (informal):
Declared: claimed over by Trump (Jul 8); no formal termination on record · Observed: collapsed Jul 7–8 · Disputed
Doha stand-down (informal) · declared basis:
No formal end was announced for the stand-down. Trump's Jul 8 "As far as I'm concerned, it's over" (asked about the ceasefire and the MOU) covers it in practice; recorded as claimed_over, not terminated.
Doha stand-down (informal) · observed basis:
Two nights of U.S. strikes (about 80 then about 90 Iranian targets) after Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, and IRGC attacks on U.S. sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.
Rule:
M13. Three separate tracks, entries dated on or before asOf only: declared = latest party declaration (in_force|extended|suspended|terminated|superseded|lapsed|claimed_over); observed = latest evidence entry (holding|violated|collapsed); disputed = any dispute entry. No track overrides another. Without a dated `terminated` declaration the termination is unconfirmed. Count = agreements whose latest declared status is in_force/extended, with no superseded declaration, and whose latest observed status is not collapsed; an extension (extension_of) of a counted agreement is not counted again. As of 2026-10-19.
Deals announced7Deals and frameworks, all-time (M3).
Still operating0No terminating event yet (M3).
Days “very close”79of 234 days at war (M1).
Median breakthrough lifespan13 daysDeal, framework or ceasefire to first collapse (M2).

DERIVED methodology v1

How this is computed
derived.very_close_status
M1. "open" if the latest very-close interval has no terminating record as of 2026-10-19. detail.days = days in the current interval (inclusive) when open, or days since it was terminated when closed.
inputs (3): clm-2026-08-04-001, clm-2026-08-04-003, clm-2026-08-17-001
calculated 2026-10-19T15:33:09.063Z
derived.days_since_last_very_close
M6. Calendar days (America/New_York) from the most recent DEAL_VERY_CLOSE/DEAL_SOON claim by a U.S. executive-branch principal (same qualifier as M1) to the dashboard date (2026-10-19). 0 = today. Null if none on record.
inputs (1): clm-2026-08-04-003
calculated 2026-10-19T15:33:09.063Z
derived.deal_loop_state
M12. State of the latest deal-related record on or before 2026-10-19 (instant order, ties by id). Map: DEAL_VERY_CLOSE (claim) → VERY CLOSE™; DEAL_SOON (claim) → VERY CLOSE™; DEAL_REACHED (event) → DEAL!; DEAL_FRAMEWORK (event) → DEAL!; DEAL_PROPOSED → COMPLICATED; TALKS_PAUSED → COMPLICATED; DEAL_DEAD → NEVER MIND; NO_DEAL → NEVER MIND; TALKS_OFF → NEVER MIND; TALKS_NOT_HAPPENING → NEVER MIND; TALKS_STARTED → PRODUCTIVE TALKS; TALKS_PRODUCTIVE → PRODUCTIVE TALKS. Other record types are ignored.
inputs (1): evt-2026-10-18-001
calculated 2026-10-19T15:33:09.063Z
derived.deals_announced
Count of DEAL_REACHED + DEAL_FRAMEWORK events on or before 2026-10-19, whatever became of them.
inputs (7): evt-2026-03-25-001, evt-2026-05-23-001, evt-2026-06-12-001, evt-2026-06-14-001, evt-2026-06-17-001, evt-2026-08-01-001, evt-2026-08-04-001
calculated 2026-10-19T15:33:09.063Z
derived.agreements_in_force
M13. Three separate tracks, entries dated on or before asOf only: declared = latest party declaration (in_force|extended|suspended|terminated|superseded|lapsed|claimed_over); observed = latest evidence entry (holding|violated|collapsed); disputed = any dispute entry. No track overrides another. Without a dated `terminated` declaration the termination is unconfirmed. Count = agreements whose latest declared status is in_force/extended, with no superseded declaration, and whose latest observed status is not collapsed; an extension (extension_of) of a counted agreement is not counted again. As of 2026-10-19.
inputs (23): clm-2026-04-07-004, clm-2026-04-21-001, clm-2026-04-21-002, clm-2026-07-08-001, evt-2026-04-07-001, evt-2026-04-08-001, evt-2026-04-13-001, evt-2026-04-21-001, evt-2026-05-07-001, evt-2026-05-25-001, evt-2026-06-14-001, evt-2026-06-17-001, evt-2026-06-20-001, evt-2026-06-25-001, evt-2026-06-26-001, evt-2026-06-27-001, evt-2026-06-28-001, evt-2026-07-07-001, evt-2026-07-07-002, evt-2026-07-07-004, evt-2026-07-08-001, evt-2026-07-08-002, evt-2026-08-17-001
calculated 2026-10-19T15:33:09.063Z
derived.deals_operating
M3. Count of DEAL_REACHED + DEAL_FRAMEWORK events with no terminating event under M2 (DEAL_DEAD, CEASEFIRE_BROKEN, TALKS_OFF event, or STRIKE/RETALIATION with severity ≥ 4).
inputs (11): evt-2026-03-25-001, evt-2026-04-08-001, evt-2026-05-23-001, evt-2026-06-05-001, evt-2026-06-12-001, evt-2026-06-14-001, evt-2026-06-17-001, evt-2026-06-26-001, evt-2026-08-01-001, evt-2026-08-04-001, evt-2026-08-17-001
calculated 2026-10-19T15:33:09.063Z
derived.days_very_close
M1. Interval starts on a DEAL_VERY_CLOSE/DEAL_SOON claim by a U.S. executive-branch principal (roles: president, vice president, secretary of state, secretary of defense, secretary of war, secretary of defense/war, treasury secretary, secretary of the treasury, white house press secretary, special envoy, presidential adviser / envoy). Ends on the first strictly-later event/claim of type DEAL_REACHED, DEAL_DEAD, NO_DEAL, TALKS_OFF, TALKS_NOT_HAPPENING (any actor). Silence does not end an interval; a qualifying claim inside an open interval is absorbed. Value = unique calendar days (America/New_York) in the union of intervals, both ends inclusive, open interval runs to 2026-10-19.
inputs (26): clm-2026-03-23-002, clm-2026-03-26-002, clm-2026-03-30-001, clm-2026-04-05-002, clm-2026-04-07-003, clm-2026-04-12-001, clm-2026-04-15-001, clm-2026-04-20-001, clm-2026-05-05-001, clm-2026-05-08-002, clm-2026-05-11-001, clm-2026-05-18-001, clm-2026-05-23-001, clm-2026-05-25-002, clm-2026-05-29-002, clm-2026-05-30-001, clm-2026-06-11-002, clm-2026-06-13-001, clm-2026-06-14-001, clm-2026-06-14-004, clm-2026-08-01-001, clm-2026-08-03-002, clm-2026-08-04-001, clm-2026-08-04-003, clm-2026-08-17-001, evt-2026-06-14-001
calculated 2026-10-19T15:33:09.063Z
derived.days_at_war
D2. day_number = 2026-10-19 − 2026-02-28 + 1, calendar days in America/New_York. Day 1 anchored to the WAR_START record.
inputs (1): evt-2026-02-28-001
calculated 2026-10-19T15:33:09.063Z
derived.breakthrough_lifespan_median
M2. Median of lifespan_days over dead breakthroughs only (n=11); operating ones excluded. Even n → mean of the two middle values.
inputs (17): evt-2026-03-25-001, evt-2026-04-07-001, evt-2026-04-08-001, evt-2026-04-16-001, evt-2026-04-21-001, evt-2026-05-07-001, evt-2026-05-23-001, evt-2026-06-05-001, evt-2026-06-12-001, evt-2026-06-14-001, evt-2026-06-17-001, evt-2026-06-26-001, evt-2026-06-28-001, evt-2026-07-07-002, evt-2026-08-01-001, evt-2026-08-04-001, evt-2026-08-17-001
calculated 2026-10-19T15:33:09.063Z

THE LOOP

Every deal-related record in the corpus moves the needle to one of the states on the loop. The state shown is whatever the most recent record says. Nobody here decides it.

DERIVED M12 · latest deal-related record wins · 109 records since Mar 5

  1. VERY CLOSE™
  2. DEAL!
  3. COMPLICATEDyou are here
  4. NEVER MIND
  5. PRODUCTIVE TALKS
7laps completed

Current state: COMPLICATED

THE LEDGER

117 deal, talks and ceasefire records, in order. Each line links to its sources.

  1. Mar 5TALKS PRODUCTIVEDonald Trump: “They're calling, they're saying 'how do we make a deal?' I said you're being a little bit late” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-03-05-001 · AOL (wire)
  2. Mar 6NO DEALDonald Trump: “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-03-06-001 · Al Jazeera · Military Times · Axios
  3. Mar 6NO DEALAbbas Araghchi: “Your Plan B will be even bigger failure” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-03-06-002 · Al Jazeera
  4. Mar 23TALKS PRODUCTIVEDonald Trump: “I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES...FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-03-23-001 · PBS NewsHour / AP · PBS NewsHour / AP · Arms Control Today
  5. Mar 23DEAL SOONDonald Trump: “All I'm saying is, we are in the throes of a real possibility of making a deal” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-03-23-002 · PBS NewsHour
  6. Mar 23TALKS NOT HAPPENINGMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: “fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-03-23-003 · PBS NewsHour · Arms Control Today
  7. Mar 23TALKS STARTEDTrump postpones power-plant strikes five days, citing 'productive' talks; Iran denies negotiations; crude plunges → PRODUCTIVE TALKS evt-2026-03-23-001 · PBS NewsHour / AP · Al Jazeera · CNBC
  8. Mar 25DEAL FRAMEWORKUS 15-point plan delivered to Iran via Pakistan; Tehran publicly denies talks → DEAL! evt-2026-03-25-001 · Iran International · Xinhua (citing NYT) · GlobalSecurity (Sputnik)
  9. Mar 26TALKS PRODUCTIVEDonald Trump: “Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-03-26-001 · Euronews
  10. Mar 26DEAL SOONDonald Trump: “They want to make a deal. The reason they want to make a deal is they have been just beat to shit” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-03-26-002 · Euronews
  11. Mar 26TALKS PRODUCTIVESteve Witkoff: “strong signs” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-03-26-003 · Euronews · GlobalSecurity (Sputnik)
  12. Mar 30DEAL SOONDonald Trump: “a deal could be made fairly quickly” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-03-30-001 · Euronews · CNBC
  13. Apr 5DEAL SOONDonald Trump: “There is a good chance, but if they don't make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there.” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-04-05-002 · Axios
  14. Apr 5TALKS PRODUCTIVEDonald Trump: “The negotiations are going well, but you never get to the finish line with the Iranians.” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-04-05-003 · Axios
  15. Apr 7TALKS PRODUCTIVEJD Vance: “a good resolution” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-04-07-002 · Axios
  16. Apr 7DEAL VERY CLOSEDonald Trump: “Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-04-07-003 · Al Jazeera · Al Jazeera
  17. Apr 7CEASEFIRE REACHEDTrump announces two-week ceasefire with Iran, brokered by Pakistan, conditioned on Hormuz reopening M2 only evt-2026-04-07-001 · Al Jazeera · NBC News · White House · Euronews
  18. Apr 8CEASEFIRE BROKENIsrael launches mass strikes on Lebanon; Netanyahu says ceasefire 'does not include Lebanon' M2 only evt-2026-04-08-001 · Euronews · Al Jazeera · Wikipedia
  19. Apr 11TALKS STARTEDIslamabad Talks open: Vance, Witkoff, Kushner meet Ghalibaf and Araghchi; US destroyers transit Hormuz → PRODUCTIVE TALKS evt-2026-04-11-001 · Military Times · CBS News · Axios
  20. Apr 12NO DEALJD Vance: “The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement, and I think that's bad news for Iran much more than it's bad news for the United States of America” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-04-12-001 · Al Jazeera · NPR
  21. Apr 12NO DEALMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: “The US has understood Iran's logic and principles, and it's time for them to decide whether they can earn our trust or not” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-04-12-002 · Al Jazeera
  22. Apr 12TALKS OFFIslamabad Talks end after 21 hours with no agreement → NEVER MIND evt-2026-04-12-001 · Al Jazeera · NPR · ABC News
  23. Apr 15DEAL SOONDonald Trump: “Iran wants to make a deal very badly” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-04-15-001 · TIME
  24. Apr 16CEASEFIRE REACHEDIsrael and Lebanon agree 10-day ceasefire announced by Trump M2 only evt-2026-04-16-001 · PBS NewsHour / AP · NBC News
  25. Apr 20DEAL SOONDonald Trump: “if Iran's new leaders (Regime Change!) are smart, Iran can have a great and prosperous future!” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-04-20-001 · Al Jazeera · Times of Israel
  26. Apr 21TALKS PRODUCTIVEDonald Trump: “Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured ... we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-04-21-001 · Axios · CBS News · Truth Social
  27. Apr 21CEASEFIRE REACHEDTrump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely 'until discussions are concluded'; blockade continues M2 only evt-2026-04-21-001 · CBS News · Axios · NPR · Al Jazeera
  28. May 5DEAL VERY CLOSEDonald Trump: “We have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-05-05-001 · Al Jazeera
  29. May 5TALKS STARTEDTrump pauses Project Freedom citing 'Great Progress' toward final agreement → PRODUCTIVE TALKS evt-2026-05-05-002 · Al Jazeera · TIME · CNBC
  30. May 8DEAL SOONDonald Trump: “Might not happen, but it could happen any day.” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-05-08-002 · TIME
  31. May 11NO DEALDonald Trump: “Right now it's on life support.” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-05-11-001 · WITN (Gray DC) · Jewish Insider · Washington Jewish Week
  32. May 11NO DEALDonald Trump: “the cease fire is on massive life support where the doctor walks in and says, sir, your loved one has approximately a 1% chance of living.” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-05-11-002 · TIME · Jewish Insider
  33. May 18DEAL SOONDonald Trump: “serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond.” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-05-18-001 · Axios · Euronews
  34. May 23DEAL VERY CLOSEDonald Trump: “Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-05-23-001 · NPR · Arms Control Association
  35. May 23DEAL FRAMEWORKTrump says Iran deal 'largely negotiated' → DEAL! evt-2026-05-23-001 · NPR · Al Jazeera · PBS NewsHour
  36. May 25TALKS PRODUCTIVEDonald Trump: “Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely! It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all.” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-05-25-001 · Times of Israel · NBC News
  37. May 25NO DEALEsmaeil Baghaei: “We have reached conclusions on a large portion of the issues, but no one can claim that the signing of an agreement is imminent” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-05-25-002 · Arms Control Association
  38. May 28CEASEFIRE PROPOSEDOfficials say tentative deal reached for 60-day truce extension M2 only · unverified evt-2026-05-28-001 · Al Jazeera
  39. May 29DEAL VERY CLOSEDonald Trump: “No money will be exchanged until further notice. Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to. I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination.” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-05-29-002 · Al Jazeera
  40. May 29TALKS PAUSEDTrump convenes Situation Room for 'final determination'; none announced → COMPLICATED evt-2026-05-29-001 · Al Jazeera · CNBC
  41. May 30NO DEALEsmaeil Baghaei: “no final agreement has been reached” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-05-30-001 · Al Jazeera
  42. Jun 1TALKS PRODUCTIVEDonald Trump: “continuing, at a rapid pace, with the Islamic Republic of Iran” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-06-01-001 · Philadelphia Inquirer
  43. Jun 1TALKS NOT HAPPENINGDonald Trump: “I really don't care. I couldn't care less. If they're over, they're over.” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-06-01-002 · Philadelphia Inquirer · CNBC · The Hill
  44. Jun 1TALKS PRODUCTIVEDonald Trump: “I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut...” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-06-01-003 · NPR
  45. Jun 1TALKS PAUSEDIran halts talks with U.S. over Israeli strikes in Lebanon → COMPLICATED evt-2026-06-01-001 · NPR · Democracy Now! · NBC News
  46. Jun 11DEAL VERY CLOSEDonald Trump: “Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening.” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-06-11-002 · Axios · TIME
  47. Jun 11NO DEALEsmaeil Baghaei: “Iran has not yet reached a final decision regarding an agreement.” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-06-11-003 · Axios
  48. Jun 11CEASEFIRE PROPOSEDTrump cancels scheduled strikes, says Iran leadership 'approved' deal M2 only evt-2026-06-11-001 · TIME · Axios · CNBC
  49. Jun 12DEAL VERY CLOSEAbbas Araghchi: “The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-06-12-001 · Press TV · BOE Report / Reuters
  50. Jun 12DEAL FRAMEWORKAraghchi: Islamabad MOU 'has never been closer'; text reportedly agreed → DEAL! evt-2026-06-12-001 · Press TV · BOE Report / Reuters · Wikipedia
  51. Jun 13DEAL VERY CLOSEDonald Trump: “We are very close to a Deal that will bring peace to the region, including to Lebanon, and all sides should stand down” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-06-13-001 · Al Jazeera · NPR
  52. Jun 14DEAL SOONDonald Trump: “It shook it up. It delayed the signing by a few hours. It was supposed to be now. Now it is scheduled for a few hours from now” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-06-14-001 · Axios
  53. Jun 14DEAL SOONPete Hegseth: “it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-06-14-004 · CBS News (transcript)
  54. Jun 14DEAL REACHEDTrump declares Iran deal 'complete,' orders blockade lifted → DEAL! evt-2026-06-14-001 · PBS NewsHour / AP · NPR · Al Jazeera
  55. Jun 17DEAL REACHEDTrump and Pezeshkian sign Islamabad Memorandum (Versailles / Tehran) → DEAL! evt-2026-06-17-001 · Times of Israel · Democracy Now! · NBC News · UK House of Commons Library
  56. Jun 21TALKS PRODUCTIVEJD Vance: “I think we're hopefully making progress on the nuclear issue, make progress on the Lebanon ceasefire issue.” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-06-21-001 · Fox News · Dawn
  57. Jun 21TALKS PRODUCTIVEPakistan and Qatar (joint mediators' statement): “Encouraging progress has been made, including the creation of a mechanism for further technical talks.” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-06-21-002 · Dawn
  58. Jun 21TALKS PRODUCTIVEAbbas Araghchi: “Tireless Pakistani and Qatari mediation has delivered major progress to end the Lebanon war.” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-06-21-003 · Dawn
  59. Jun 21TALKS STARTEDVance leads direct U.S.–Iran talks at Bürgenstock; 60-day roadmap agreed → PRODUCTIVE TALKS evt-2026-06-21-001 · Dawn · Fox News · NPR
  60. Jun 28CEASEFIRE REACHEDU.S. and Iran agree to halt strikes, meet in Doha M2 only evt-2026-06-28-001 · Axios · Wikipedia
  61. Jun 30TALKS NOT HAPPENINGEsmaeil Baghaei: “No meeting at any level with the American side has been scheduled for the coming days.” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-06-30-001 · TIME
  62. Jun 30TALKS STARTEDWitkoff and Kushner meet mediators in Doha; Iran–Oman Hormuz committee meets in Muscat → PRODUCTIVE TALKS evt-2026-06-30-001 · TIME · Euronews · CNN
  63. Jul 1TALKS PRODUCTIVEJD Vance: “going well” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-07-01-001 · CNN
  64. Jul 8NO DEALDonald Trump: “To me, I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them anymore. They're scum.” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-07-08-001 · Roll Call Factba.se transcript · Al Jazeera · NPR
  65. Jul 8CEASEFIRE BROKENTrump at NATO summit: 'I think it's over' M2 only evt-2026-07-08-002 · NPR · Al Jazeera
  66. Jul 10NO DEALDonald Trump: “The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue 'talks'. We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-07-10-001 · Al Jazeera · Axios · Washington Post
  67. Jul 10NO DEALMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: “Ending the war is a priority for the countries of the world, but everyone should know that this conflict will never end with Iran's surrender.” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-07-10-002 · Al Jazeera
  68. Jul 14NO DEALDonald Trump: “They want to make a deal, but every time they make a deal, they break it.” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-07-14-001 · Fox News
  69. Jul 27TALKS PRODUCTIVEDonald Trump: “very friendly negotiations” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-07-27-001 · Al Jazeera · Al Jazeera
  70. Jul 28NO DEALMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: “The administration of the strait will never return to the way that it was before the war” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-07-28-001 · Al Jazeera
  71. Jul 30TALKS PRODUCTIVETahir Andrabi: “Negotiations between parties are ongoing, particularly on [the] Strait of Hormuz and to de-escalate” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-07-30-001 · JINSA
  72. Aug 1DEAL SOONDonald Trump: “to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-08-01-001 · JINSA · Al Jazeera
  73. Aug 1DEAL FRAMEWORKTrump cancels planned 'massive attack' on Iran, citing rapid deal on Hormuz → DEAL! evt-2026-08-01-001 · JINSA · NPR · Al Jazeera
  74. Aug 2DEAL VERY CLOSEAbbas Araghchi: “on the way to being finalised” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-08-02-001 · Al Jazeera
  75. Aug 3NO DEALDonald Trump: “Nothing gets through to Iran, unless we want it to, and nothing will get through, unless a Deal, or Total Surrender, is accomplished” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-08-03-002 · Al Jazeera · CNN
  76. Aug 3TALKS NOT HAPPENINGEsmaeil Baghaei: “As long as the maritime siege and US actions continue, nothing significant will change in the Strait of Hormuz” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-08-03-003 · Al Jazeera
  77. Aug 3TALKS STARTEDIran says Oman-mediated Hormuz talks in 'final stages'; Iran denies direct US talks → PRODUCTIVE TALKS evt-2026-08-03-001 · Al Jazeera · JINSA
  78. Aug 4DEAL VERY CLOSEDonald Trump: “We are having very good discussions” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-08-04-001 · JINSA · The Hill
  79. Aug 4DEAL VERY CLOSEScott Bessent: “There is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict” → VERY CLOSE™ clm-2026-08-04-003 · La Voce di New York · JINSA · The Hill · CNBC
  80. Aug 4TALKS PRODUCTIVEMarco Rubio: “There's been progress made in those talks, but not finality yet.” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-08-04-004 · JINSA
  81. Aug 4DEAL FRAMEWORKAxios: US, Iran, Oman near 60-day Hormuz corridor arrangement; Iran said to approve → DEAL! evt-2026-08-04-001 · JINSA · CNN · CNBC
  82. Aug 8TALKS PAUSEDIran expands Hormuz demands; UAE accuses Iran of missile attack on ADNOC tanker → COMPLICATED · unverified evt-2026-08-08-001 · JINSA
  83. Aug 9TALKS PAUSEDDonald Trump: “we are low-keying” → COMPLICATED clm-2026-08-09-001 · JINSA
  84. Aug 17NO DEALDonald Trump: “I'm not in a hurry” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-08-17-001 · CBS News · JINSA
  85. Aug 17TALKS PRODUCTIVEJared Kushner: “they are not showing any interest in doing something that makes sense for us” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-08-17-003 · CBS News · JINSA
  86. Aug 17DEAL DEAD60-day MOU negotiation deadline expires with no deal; Trump threatens to bomb Oman → NEVER MIND evt-2026-08-17-001 · CBS News · CNN · JINSA
  87. Aug 18TALKS NOT HAPPENINGDonald Trump: “There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect.” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-08-18-001 · Times of Israel · JINSA
  88. Aug 18NO DEALMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: “The Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until the American commitments stipulated in the memorandum of understanding… are implemented.” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-08-18-003 · Times of Israel
  89. Aug 18TALKS OFFTrump: 'no talks or conversations' with Iran; posts Hormuz map as 'NEW U.S. Territory'; orders diplomacy paused indefinitely → NEVER MIND evt-2026-08-18-001 · Times of Israel · JINSA · CNBC
  90. Aug 21NO DEALDonald Trump: “would love to make a deal, but they're not ready” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-08-21-001 · JINSA
  91. Aug 26NO DEALDonald Trump: “I'm not in a hurry. I have no time schedule at all” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-08-26-002 · JINSA
  92. Aug 27TALKS NOT HAPPENINGDonald Trump: “I don't want to meet, they do. In fact, they are begging to make a deal.” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-08-27-002 · Axios · JINSA
  93. Aug 28TALKS PAUSEDAbbas Araghchi: “Putting diplomacy back on track isn't impossible. It hinges on U.S. understanding of one simple fact: pressure doesn't work.” → COMPLICATED clm-2026-08-28-001 · JINSA
  94. Sep 3TALKS NOT HAPPENINGJD Vance: “we are not talking to the Iranians, and we are not going to talk to them unless they stop shooting at commercial shipping” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-09-03-001 · JINSA
  95. Sep 7NO DEALChris Wright: “There may not be a nuclear agreement [with Iran]” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-09-07-001 · JINSA
  96. Sep 9NO DEALDonald Trump: “Originally, I wanted to make a deal. We're so far down the line, they have very little country left right now, so we're not looking for it.” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-09-09-003 · The National
  97. Sep 14TALKS NOT HAPPENINGMohsen Rezaei: “No talks until Iran's conditions are met. Period!” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-09-14-001 · JINSA
  98. Sep 14TALKS OFFIran SNSC Secretary Rezaei rejects resuming talks: 'No talks until Iran's conditions are met. Period!' → NEVER MIND · unverified evt-2026-09-14-001 · JINSA
  99. Sep 16DEAL PROPOSEDIran delivers seven-day Hormuz reopening proposal to US via mediators → COMPLICATED · unverified evt-2026-09-16-001 · Times of Israel (Reuters)
  100. Sep 20TALKS PRODUCTIVEDonald Trump: “probably be willing to meet” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-09-20-001 · JINSA · TIME
  101. Sep 22TALKS PRODUCTIVEDonald Trump: “They had a very good meeting, and we'll see how it turns out” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-09-22-002 · Israel National News · Al Jazeera
  102. Sep 22TALKS PRODUCTIVESteve Witkoff: “successfully completed a round of discussions that we hope will prove constructive and promising” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-09-22-003 · Israel National News · The National
  103. Sep 22TALKS STARTEDWitkoff, Kushner hold three-hour indirect talks with Araghchi at UNGA — first US-Iran contact since Aug 18 talks freeze → PRODUCTIVE TALKS evt-2026-09-22-001 · Israel National News · The National · Al Jazeera · Axios
  104. Sep 25TALKS PRODUCTIVEMarco Rubio: “if there's an opportunity to exchange ideas and messages, we will” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-09-25-001 · AP (via WRAL)
  105. Sep 26NO DEALDonald Trump: “I'm rejecting their deal.” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-09-26-001 · CBS News · Al Jazeera
  106. Sep 26NO DEALMasoud Pezeshkian: “We have no trust in the American side and do not know on what basis an understanding can be reached with it” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-09-26-002 · Al Jazeera
  107. Sep 26DEAL DEADTrump rejects Iran's seven-day Hormuz reopening proposal ('I'm rejecting their deal') → NEVER MIND evt-2026-09-26-001 · Al Jazeera · CBS News
  108. Sep 27NO DEALDonald Trump: “They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make.” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-09-27-001 · CBS News (citing Axios)
  109. Sep 28NO DEALDonald Trump: “I offered them NOTHING!” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-09-28-002 · Washington Examiner
  110. Sep 30TALKS PRODUCTIVEMasoud Pezeshkian: “We will make every effort to bring the agreement to fruition” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-09-30-001 · Egypt Today (citing AP/IRNA)
  111. Sep 30DEAL PROPOSEDIran receives written US reply/counterproposal to its Hormuz proposal via Qatari mediators → COMPLICATED evt-2026-09-30-001 · UNI · Egypt Today (citing AP/IRNA) · AP (via WAFB)
  112. Oct 5TALKS NOT HAPPENINGMasoud Pezeshkian: “With an enemy that every day resorts to assassination, sanctions, pressure and threats, and that breaks its commitments, negotiations are meaningless.” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-10-05-001 · Korea Times (AFP)
  113. Oct 7TALKS PRODUCTIVEDonald Trump: “He's working on the Iran deal and doing very well.” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-10-07-003 · The New Arab
  114. Oct 8TALKS PRODUCTIVEDonald Trump: “We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran” → PRODUCTIVE TALKS clm-2026-10-08-001 · The New Arab · The National
  115. Oct 11NO DEALMohsen Rezaei: “The US has agreed to some of Iran's seven conditions, but we consider its response INADEQUATE.” → NEVER MIND clm-2026-10-11-001 · RFE/RL · Al-Monitor (Reuters)
  116. Oct 11TALKS PAUSEDIran SNSC's Rezaei calls US reply to seven conditions 'insufficient', says Iran no longer responding; FM says still reviewing → COMPLICATED evt-2026-10-11-002 · Al-Monitor (Reuters) · Offshore Engineer (Reuters) · Just Security · Iran International
  117. Oct 18TALKS PAUSEDAraghchi says Iran's seven-day Hormuz reopening proposal is "still on the table"; sequencing dispute with Washington unresolved → COMPLICATED evt-2026-10-18-001 · Asharq Al-Awsat (Reuters) · Kashmir Reader (Reuters) · Fox News

THE GRAVEYARD

A brief history of hope. Lifespan ends at the first collapse, talks-off, or severity-4 strike (M2).

11 breakthroughs · median lifespan 13 days · survivors 0

  1. R.I.P.

    The 15-Point Plan

    Mar 25 – Apr 8

    14 days

    Nice try.

    Receipts
    Born:
    evt-2026-03-25-001 · DEAL_FRAMEWORK · US 15-point plan delivered to Iran via Pakistan; Tehran publicly denies talks
    Died:
    evt-2026-04-08-001 · CEASEFIRE_BROKEN (severity 4) · Israel launches mass strikes on Lebanon; Netanyahu says ceasefire 'does not include Lebanon'
    Lifespan:
    2026-04-08 − 2026-03-25 = 14 (M2, calendar days, America/New_York)

  2. R.I.P.

    Two-Week Ceasefire

    Apr 7 – Apr 8

    1 day

    Two weeks, roughly.

    Receipts
    Born:
    evt-2026-04-07-001 · CEASEFIRE_REACHED · Trump announces two-week ceasefire with Iran, brokered by Pakistan, conditioned on Hormuz reopening
    Died:
    evt-2026-04-08-001 · CEASEFIRE_BROKEN (severity 4) · Israel launches mass strikes on Lebanon; Netanyahu says ceasefire 'does not include Lebanon'
    Lifespan:
    2026-04-08 − 2026-04-07 = 1 (M2, calendar days, America/New_York)

  3. R.I.P.

    Israel–Lebanon 10-Day Truce

    Apr 16 – May 7

    21 days

    Outlived its warranty.

    Receipts
    Born:
    evt-2026-04-16-001 · CEASEFIRE_REACHED · Israel and Lebanon agree 10-day ceasefire announced by Trump
    Died:
    evt-2026-05-07-001 · RETALIATION (severity 4) · Iran attacks three U.S. destroyers in Hormuz; U.S. strikes back
    Died source:
    CNBC, 2026-05-07
    Lifespan:
    2026-05-07 − 2026-04-16 = 21 (M2, calendar days, America/New_York)

  4. R.I.P.

    The Indefinite Ceasefire

    Apr 21 – May 7

    16 days

    Indefinite, it turns out, is 16.

    Receipts
    Born:
    evt-2026-04-21-001 · CEASEFIRE_REACHED · Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely 'until discussions are concluded'; blockade continues
    Born source:
    Axios, 2026-04-21
    Born source:
    NPR, 2026-04-21
    Died:
    evt-2026-05-07-001 · RETALIATION (severity 4) · Iran attacks three U.S. destroyers in Hormuz; U.S. strikes back
    Died source:
    CNBC, 2026-05-07
    Lifespan:
    2026-05-07 − 2026-04-21 = 16 (M2, calendar days, America/New_York)

  5. R.I.P.

    “Largely Negotiated”

    May 23 – Jun 5

    13 days

    Largely.

    Receipts
    Born:
    evt-2026-05-23-001 · DEAL_FRAMEWORK · Trump says Iran deal 'largely negotiated'
    Born source:
    NPR, 2026-05-23
    Died:
    evt-2026-06-05-001 · RETALIATION (severity 4) · Iran fires drones at Hormuz and seven ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain
    Died source:
    CENTCOM, 2026-06-05
    Lifespan:
    2026-06-05 − 2026-05-23 = 13 (M2, calendar days, America/New_York)

  6. R.I.P.

    Islamabad MOU Text

    Jun 12 – Jun 26

    14 days

    Never been closer.

    Receipts
    Born:
    evt-2026-06-12-001 · DEAL_FRAMEWORK · Araghchi: Islamabad MOU 'has never been closer'; text reportedly agreed
    Died:
    evt-2026-06-26-001 · STRIKE (severity 4) · U.S. strikes Iranian missile, drone and radar sites after ship attack
    Died source:
    NPR, 2026-06-26
    Lifespan:
    2026-06-26 − 2026-06-12 = 14 (M2, calendar days, America/New_York)

  7. R.I.P.

    The Deal, “Complete”

    Jun 14 – Jun 26

    12 days

    Complete-ish.

    Receipts
    Born:
    evt-2026-06-14-001 · DEAL_REACHED · Trump declares Iran deal 'complete,' orders blockade lifted
    Born source:
    NPR, 2026-06-14
    Died:
    evt-2026-06-26-001 · STRIKE (severity 4) · U.S. strikes Iranian missile, drone and radar sites after ship attack
    Died source:
    NPR, 2026-06-26
    Lifespan:
    2026-06-26 − 2026-06-14 = 12 (M2, calendar days, America/New_York)

  8. R.I.P.

    Islamabad Memorandum

    Jun 17 – Jun 26

    9 days

    Signed. Sealed.

    Receipts
    Born:
    evt-2026-06-17-001 · DEAL_REACHED · Trump and Pezeshkian sign Islamabad Memorandum (Versailles / Tehran)
    Died:
    evt-2026-06-26-001 · STRIKE (severity 4) · U.S. strikes Iranian missile, drone and radar sites after ship attack
    Died source:
    NPR, 2026-06-26
    Lifespan:
    2026-06-26 − 2026-06-17 = 9 (M2, calendar days, America/New_York)

  9. R.I.P.

    The Doha Stand-Down

    Jun 28 – Jul 7

    9 days

    “For now.”

    Receipts
    Born:
    evt-2026-06-28-001 · CEASEFIRE_REACHED · U.S. and Iran agree to halt strikes, meet in Doha
    Born source:
    Axios, 2026-06-28
    Died:
    evt-2026-07-07-002 · STRIKE (severity 5) · U.S. strikes ~80 Iranian targets including 60+ IRGC small boats
    Died source:
    CENTCOM, 2026-07-08
    Died source:
    CNBC, 2026-07-07
    Lifespan:
    2026-07-07 − 2026-06-28 = 9 (M2, calendar days, America/New_York)

  10. R.I.P.

    The Called-Off Attack

    Aug 1 – Aug 17

    16 days

    Rapidly.

    Receipts
    Born:
    evt-2026-08-01-001 · DEAL_FRAMEWORK · Trump cancels planned 'massive attack' on Iran, citing rapid deal on Hormuz
    Born source:
    JINSA, 2026-08-03
    Born source:
    NPR, 2026-08-02
    Died:
    evt-2026-08-17-001 · DEAL_DEAD · 60-day MOU negotiation deadline expires with no deal; Trump threatens to bomb Oman
    Died source:
    CNN, 2026-08-17
    Died source:
    JINSA, 2026-08-19
    Lifespan:
    2026-08-17 − 2026-08-01 = 16 (M2, calendar days, America/New_York)

  11. R.I.P.

    The 60-Day Corridor

    Aug 4 – Aug 17

    13 days

    60 days, minus 47.

    Receipts
    Born:
    evt-2026-08-04-001 · DEAL_FRAMEWORK · Axios: US, Iran, Oman near 60-day Hormuz corridor arrangement; Iran said to approve
    Born source:
    JINSA, 2026-08-05
    Born source:
    CNN, 2026-08-04
    Born source:
    CNBC, 2026-08-05
    Died:
    evt-2026-08-17-001 · DEAL_DEAD · 60-day MOU negotiation deadline expires with no deal; Trump threatens to bomb Oman
    Died source:
    CNN, 2026-08-17
    Died source:
    JINSA, 2026-08-19
    Lifespan:
    2026-08-17 − 2026-08-04 = 13 (M2, calendar days, America/New_York)

  12. RESERVED

    for whatever gets announced next.

Lifespan runs from a deal, framework or ceasefire to the first collapse, broken ceasefire, called-off talks, or strike/retaliation of severity 4+ (M2). Every stone links to both events.

DERIVED methodology v1

How this is computed
derived.breakthroughs
M2. Every DEAL_REACHED/DEAL_FRAMEWORK/CEASEFIRE_REACHED event. Death = first strictly-later DEAL_DEAD, CEASEFIRE_BROKEN, TALKS_OFF event, or STRIKE/RETALIATION with severity ≥ 4. lifespan_days = death date − birth date (calendar days, America/New_York); for operating breakthroughs, age as of 2026-10-19.
inputs (17): evt-2026-03-25-001, evt-2026-04-07-001, evt-2026-04-08-001, evt-2026-04-16-001, evt-2026-04-21-001, evt-2026-05-07-001, evt-2026-05-23-001, evt-2026-06-05-001, evt-2026-06-12-001, evt-2026-06-14-001, evt-2026-06-17-001, evt-2026-06-26-001, evt-2026-06-28-001, evt-2026-07-07-002, evt-2026-08-01-001, evt-2026-08-04-001, evt-2026-08-17-001
calculated 2026-10-19T15:33:09.063Z